New Delhi – Senior Indian lawmakers and experts are raising red flags over China’s plans to build the world’s largest hydroelectric dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo river in Tibet — warning it could have catastrophic consequences for millions living downstream in India and Bangladesh.
Addressing a high-level conference on water security and disaster resilience in the Sub-Himalayan region, Tapir Gao, BJP Member of Parliament from Arunachal Pradesh, described the proposed 60,000-MW capacity dam as a “water bomb” that could be used as a geopolitical weapon.
“If China decides to release water from the dam in the future, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Bangladesh, and even parts of Southeast Asia will be devastated,” Gao warned at the event titled “Ensuring Water Security, Ecological Integrity and Disaster Resilience in the Sub-Himalayan Region: The Case of the Brahmaputra.”
The planned dam, approved by Beijing in December 2024 at an estimated cost of $137 billion, will be located in Medog County — where the Yarlung Tsangpo takes a dramatic U-turn before entering India’s Arunachal Pradesh as the Siang river, and eventually becomes the Brahmaputra in Assam.
Echoes of Past Disasters
Gao referenced the June 2000 flash floods that swept away over 10 bridges in Arunachal Pradesh, blaming it on a sudden release of water from a similar dam project upstream.
The proposed Medog dam, he argued, could similarly unleash uncontrolled floods or drastically reduce water flow, impacting agriculture, drinking water supplies, and biodiversity throughout northeast India and Bangladesh.
He also called for urgent construction of an Indian dam on the Siang to mitigate possible disasters from China’s project.
A Broader Geopolitical Risk
International experts echoed these concerns. Renowned Swedish journalist Bertil Lintner, an authority on Asian geopolitics, said China’s dam-building spree in Tibet is part of a long-term geopolitical strategy.
“China has constructed 11 mega dams on the Mekong alone, affecting five other countries. Now, the same approach is being extended to the Brahmaputra,” Lintner said, urging India to push for a water-sharing agreement with China — something that currently does not exist.
Claude Arpi, a veteran India-China observer, warned that China also aims to divert the Yarlung Tsangpo’s flow to the Yellow River through a network of tunnels — potentially diminishing the Brahmaputra’s downstream volume.
Scientific Community Raises Alarms
Dr. Ranbir Singh, Chairman of the Brahmaputra Board, said the Brahmaputra Basin is the only water-surplus basin in India, and losing this advantage could prove disastrous.
“Are we looking at a future where even the Brahmaputra becomes a water-deficient river? These questions must be addressed through rigorous scientific study,” Singh said.
Experts from IIT Guwahati, including Professor Anamika Baruah, highlighted the lack of transparency from China and the information vacuum regarding the ecological, social, and geopolitical impacts of the dam.
“We don’t have enough data or scientific tools to assess the real impact. China is not sharing hydrological data, and this hampers regional preparedness,” Baruah said.
The Path Forward
Participants at the conference — which included experts from Nepal, Bhutan, Vietnam, and across disciplines such as ecology, environmental law, international relations, engineering, and diplomacy — called for a multi-pronged strategy.
This includes launching independent scientific studies, bolstering diplomatic pressure, building international coalitions, and preparing resilient infrastructure downstream.
Sabyasachi Dutta, director of Asian Confluence, the organizing think tank, said the Medog project must be seen not just as a regional concern but as a global climate and water security issue.
“India must take the lead in commissioning credible research to galvanize international support against this megaproject,” Dutta said.
